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Statistics needed

National Post – November 28, 2006

Notable quote:

Dr. Edward Wegman: “I am baffled by the claim that the incorrect method doesn’t matter because the answer is correct anyway. Method Wrong + Answer Correct = Bad Science.” With bad science, only true believers can assert that they nevertheless obtained the right answer.

I have repeatedly called for better math and computational methodologies to understand our current climate change predicament. My statement comes from the belief that if we don’t understand where we are and how we got here, how in the world can we make appropriate changes that can bring meaningful changes?

What global warming, Australian skeptic asks

Financial Post – July 17, 2007

Bob Carter of James Cook University is probably one of the most outspoken critics of the theories of global warming within academia. His thoughts on the subject bear interest simply because he is not a politician and he is not intimately tied to companies that would benefit from no changes in energy policy.

He was recently written about in the article cited and I cannot do justice to all of his comments without violating copyright laws and copy the entire article here. I will mention a few but you will need to go to the source to get a full taste of all of his complaints.

Why global climate models do not give a realistic description of the local climate

RealClimate – May 27, 2007

I have written about this excellent site often (here and here and here and here and here) but I really must encourage all of my regular readers to read this article on climate models.  As you know, I regularly have called for more effort to be done in this area of computer technology as I honestly believe that the climate scientists need a concerted effort for a rapid increase in capability in handling massive amounts of numbers and equations in parallel.

How Global Warming Works

howstuffworks is a wonderful site that has very well written articles.  This article is a basic description of global warming.  I know that many of my regular readers may find this article very basic however, my goal is to make sure that the average person can understand much of the science of climate change.  To that end, I offer this article.

Global warming was once an uncommon term used by a few scientists who were growing concerned over the effects of decades of pollution on long-term weather patterns. Today, the idea of global warming is well known, if not well understood. It is not unusual to hear someone complaining about a hot day or a freak storm and remark, “It’s global warming.”

Cars By The Numbers

Environmental Defense – March 20, 2007

This is an easy article since it should have no controversy.  It is simply a list of statistics regarding automobiles.  Since many people think that we should cut back on auto emissions to reverse global warming, this should be an interesting read.

  • 232 million – Number of registered vehicles in the U.S.
  • 600 gallons – Average amount of gasoline consumed by one U.S. car each year.
  • 12,000 pounds – Amount of carbon dioxide emitted from one U.S. car each year.
  • 240 – Number of trees needed to absorb the 12,000 pounds of carbon dioxide emitted from one U.S. car each year.

Expert disputes storms’ link to global warming

The Sun News – February 23, 2007

This is a very informative article that discusses the connection of hurricane frequency and strength to the warming of the climate. The most telling point of this article is that it is obvious that Chris Landsea of the National Hurrican Center does not believe that the two are linked (or at the very least the link is tenuous).

…perception [that global warming is causing increase in hurricanes] is wrong and the statistics don’t bear it out, Landsea told about 200 students and professors

“It’s not a trend, it’s a cycle: 20-45 years quiet, 20-45 years busy,” Landsea said. Scientists currently have no idea what causes the time period.

Hockey Stick again – Welkom bij Natuurwetenschap & Techniek – February 2005

This is a fairly long article by Marcel Crok that has been translated into english. It is full of statistical analysis. It declares that much of the underlining assumptions for the rapid increase in global temperatures is quite flawed from a statistical standpoint. A few points:

They carefully studied the script and found something very unusual. McIntyre:In a conventional PC calculation in a high-level language, the mean of each series is subtracted from each column prior to the rest of the algorithm. Instead of doing this, Manns Fortran program had only subtracted the 1902-1980 mean from each column. This is a highly unusual procedure and had not been mentioned in the Nature article.