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CLIMATE MODEL PREDICTS A WARMER, MAYBE WETTER FUTURE

Science Now – Fall 1999

Yes, I realize this is an old article.  I am posting it here not because it is news but because it is well written regarding climate models.  We need good climate models in order to predict the future of our planet and the weather that surrounds it.  Take a minute to read the below excerpts and then jump to the article and read the rest.  It is worth your time if you are interested in this subject.

The first part of the article discusses how climate models work.  This is especially worth your time.

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Why So Gloomy?

MSNBC – Newsweek – April 16, 2007

I haven’t read the printed copy of Newsweek yet (my motto is: Save A Tree – Read Online) but I assume this article is in the April 16 issue. Great article! Click through and read the whole thing or go to the news stand and buy a copy.

Mr. Lindzen, a meteorologist from MIT that is not funded by energy companies, argues that there may be global warming but that it doesn’t amount to the catastrophe that we have associated with it. He points out that the models are lousy at explaining what is really going on now let alone what will happen in the future. He also points out that we are coming out of an ice age which means that the temperature is going to go up.

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Global Warming: Fact, Fiction and Political Endgame

Townhall.com – February 26, 2007

This is a commentary article about Al Gore, his recent accolades for “An Inconvenient Truth”, and some of the background science of global climate change.  It is a very good read and I encourage my readers to click through to the source article (especially since the title is quite close to the URL of my blog). 

It is interesting that the author tries to draw a correlation between the Academy Awards that Mr. Gore received and the timing of the IPCC report.  I don’t think that this is anything but coincidence and all of my research indicates that the two are not tied together.  We know that the Academy Awards are always held the same time of the year and it appears that the IPCC was always trying to put their release out at that time of the year.  It does not appear that Mr. Gore’s very well made documentary had anything to do with it.

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An Ice Age versus Global Warming

The American Daily – February 25, 2007

This is more commentary than fact however the author raises some interesting points.  It is worthwhile for the average reader to spend a few minutes thinking about these points.  I rarely like the argument “common sense” since it is rare for people to agree with this logic, however it is still worthwhile to think through the conclusions made in the article.

2080 is a mere 73 years from now. In meteorological terms, it is a blink of the eye. Real climatologists measure time far differently than the rest of us. While the IPCC, Al Gore, and the other fear mongers are warning of the horrors of Global Warming, it is useful to look at the time scales. The end of the last Ice Age was 11,500 ago.

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Earth – melting in the heat?

BBC News – October 7, 2005

This article details some of the observed effects of global warming as well as some of the effects for the future.  It is quite light on scientific detail – just a discussion on the empirical observations that bring one to conclude that global warming is real.

Indigenous Arctic peoples will find their food stocks gone, while fresh water supplies in Asia and south America will disappear as the glaciers which provide them melt away; penguins, polar bears and seals will find their habitats gone, their traditional lives unliveable.

There is so much ice here [Antarctic] that if it all melted, sea levels globally would rise hugely – perhaps as much as 80m. Say goodbye to London, New York, Sydney, Bangkok, Rio… in fact, the majority of the world’s major cities.

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Unlicensed Engineers

Climate Science – March 14, 2007

This is a very good article.  I strongly urge everyone to read it.  Mr. Pielke runs a great blog and I hope that this site does as much justice to this topic as his does.

The article is guest written by Hendrik Tennekes.  There are no credentials given for Mr. Tennekes but he appears to be authoritative on the issue.  I won’t be able to convey all of his material in this entry so please click on the link at the bottom and read his original article.

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Open Kyoto to debate

Financial Post – April 6, 2006

This is an open letter from 60 scientists (listed in the letter) in Canada calling on its government to walk away from the Kyoto agreement. It makes the argument that the evidence does not lead to the conclusion that the climate models are correct nor that the efforts of Kyoto will adequately affect the climate.

The article also points out that the “unqualified environmental groups” are doing a very good job of creating buzz but that their science and conclusions are not appropriate.

Observational evidence does not support today’s computer climate models, so there is little reason to trust model predictions of the future.

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Antarctic temperatures disagree with climate model predictions

Ohio State University – February 15, 2007

This is an extremely strong article that basically says the models that some scientists are using to predict doom and gloom are not complete or not correct. Interesting that this report comes out only days after IPCC report gave a 90% chance that humans are causing global warming.

I don’t understand how he can say that the models are not exact and then the global population is supposed to take these same models, assume the sky is falling, and spend billions of dollars trying to correct it.

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Environmental Effects of Increased Atmospheric Carbon Dioxide

Petition Project – January 1998

This article is states that the effects of CO2 on the climate are negligible if they exist at all. It contends that CO2 levels are definitely increasing but that their effect does not compare to other factors including random climate variation and the influence of the sun.

This petition project was created so that scientists could express their concern regarding the conclusions of the Kyoto agreements. It was supposedly “signed” by 17,000 scientists that questioned the conclusion of the politicians and scientists that gathered at Kyoto.

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