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Follow-up: NASA Sees Arctic Ocean Circulation Do an About-Face

A few days ago, I wrote about a new NASA study that suggests that the Arctic Ocean is reversing the circulation direction. The study theorized that the circulation direction was a major contributor of the melting of Arctic ice.

At the time that I wrote the article, there was very little analysis by other scientists on the study (still isn’t). So I reached out to several of the contributors at RealClimate and asked them what they thought.  Dr. Benestad replied to me and he has agreed to let me reproduce his comments here for all to learn from. I would like to publicly thank him for his willingness to help us understand this.

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NASA Sees Arctic Ocean Circulation Do an About-Face

Jet Propulsion Laboratory – November 13, 2007

Here we go again! It seems like every time we turn around there is a new study that suggests that global warming is going to get worse or it is going to reverse. The only clear evidence that I can find is that the climate is so complex that we simply don’t understand it yet.

A team of scientists for NASA has released a study that suggests that the Arctic Ocean circulation is about to change directions. It appears to do this somewhat frequently although it is doubtful that we really understand what transpired prior to the middle of the 20th century.

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35 Inconvenient Truths: The errors in Al Gore’s movie – Part 3 of 5

This is the third of a 5 part series reviewing the comments of the Science and Public Policy Institute (SPPI) in regards to “An Inconvenient Truth” (AIT).

You can read Part 1 of 5 here.
You can read Part 2 of 5 here.
You can read Part 4 of 5 here.
You can read Part 5 of 5 here.

ERROR 18 – I can’t find evidence for SPPI’s statement that the Arctic has increased  decreased in temperature 1 deg C in the last 60 years. SPPI falls victim here to the common Gore affliction of pointing out individual instances of information (ice bound ships) and assuming that this is conclusive data. I have called AIT out on this and I need to do the same with SPPI. Unless they can point to a reference for the temperature increase, I need to call this one spin.

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The Soros Threat To Democracy

Investor’s Business Daily – September 24, 2007

This article is a commentary, so obviously we need to take all of the accusations with a bit of a grain of salt. While it did appear in a major daily newspaper, it doesn’t have to withstand the same levels of care that a news article needs.

The article covers George Soros, the wealthy benefactor to many political causes. The reason that I am writing about it is due to one of its claims: James Hansen received money from a Soros group. James Hansen, as you may remember, works for NASA and is one of the primary influencers in the discussion of global warming. His works and speeches are cited throughout the web and if you do a search in the Search box on this site, you will see him referenced often.

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Inside the Beltway – Cold yet?

The Washington Times – September 19, 2007

Well, I guess everyone has the right to change his or her mind. It seems that the chief evangelist for the global warming crusade, Dr. James E. Hansen of NASA, wrote a paper a long time ago saying that Earth was headed into a new ice age.

Many people have tried to remind the world that it wasn’t that long ago that pre-eminent scientists believed that we were not getting warmer but rather we were getting colder. What has recently come out is that Dr. Hansen was part of this crowd.

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Can you buy a greener conscience?

Los Angeles Times – September 2, 2007

P.T. Barnum supposedly said that there was a sucker born every minute. Sometimes, when I read about carbon credits, I am not sure who the sucker is – the person buying, the person selling, or the general public for thinking it is helping!

I really don’t like carbon credit schemes.  I have written about them multiple times and most of what I read simply doesn’t make sense and is closer to scam than it is to solution.

In order for credits to be feasible and to be more than a “feel good” gesture, we need solid accounting, accountability, and penalties. We have none of that now and this article makes this painfully clear. We cannot allow credits to be used for minor contributions to a project. The credit must go to the cost of reducing the greenhouse gas. 

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Global warming forecast predicts rise in 2014

Telegraph – August 9, 2007

I constantly tirade against the climate computer models that predict global warming. I really don’t see how they can be accurate based on my knowledge of them and the many “assumptions” that I know they make.

Here is an article on climate models that actually gives me hope that we are moving in the right direction!

According to the article (and to the best of my knowledge), this is the first computer model that is not designed to predict the climate in 50 or 100 years but rather predicts it in 10 years. I think this is important, since if you can get 10 years correct (something that is verifiable in 10 years), we can gain confidence in the 20, 30, 50 and 100 year predictions if they use the same modeling techniques.

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1998 was not the warmest

I have had a few people email me asking why I didn’t make a big deal about the republishing of data on 1998 not being the warmest ever.  Keep those emails coming but I wanted to publicly comment.

There are three reasons I didn’t make a big deal about this, even though a Google search of blogs shows that others did. 

  1. It appears that it was an honest mistake. I don’t want to make a big deal about honest mistakes. More importantly, I think it is critical that scientists own up to these mistakes as soon as possible. He who is perfect should throw the first stone…
  2. It really doesn’t matter much.  So now 1998 is second. So what? It was so close to first that it was a virtual tie.

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Tempest In A Teapot

Investors Business Daily – July 25, 2007

Significant quote:

A private firm’s downgrade of its hurricane forecast raises an obvious question: If scientists can’t get near-future projections in a limited area right, how can they predict the climate decades from now?

I have been suggesting for quite some time that the first step in a global war on climate change begin in a fairly modest way. Instead of implementing extremely tough sanctions against energy use, we need to invest a relatively small amount of money to better understand our environment.

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NASA MISSION CHECKS HEALTH OF GREENLAND’S ICE SHEET AND GLACIERS

Earth Observatory – May 30, 2007

This is an article about NASA’s recent trip to Greenland to check on the “health” of the glaciers that cover much of that island. This is a regular activity of these scientists as it allows us to monitor the thickness and the flow of the main glaciers. This year they also added new devices to their repertoire.

A NASA-led research team has returned from Greenland after an annual three-week mission to check the health of its glaciers and ice sheet. About 82 percent of Greenland is made up of a giant ice sheet.

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