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Hurricane activity lowest in 3 decades

The season for hurricanes is not over yet but we only have a few more weeks of "prime time" left. So far, 2007 is shaping up to be the lowest number of hurricanes since 1977.

While this may seem significant, it isn’t. The data for tracking this stuff is unbelievably short and we simply do not have enough data to say anything of significance about the fact that it was so low. On other sites, you may see discussion that the trend is still going up but even that isn’t significant because we have so little data. If we were doing a good count since 1900, then I would pay attention to the trend but that isn’t the case.  We only have about 40 years of data it is relatively meaningless.

35 Inconvenient Truths: The errors in Al Gore’s movie – Part 2 of 5

This is the second of a 5 part series reviewing the comments of the Science and Public Policy Institute (SPPI) in regards to “An Inconvenient Truth” (AIT).

You can read Part 1 of 5 here.
You can read Part 3 of 5 here.
You can read Part 4 of 5 here.
You can read Part 5 of 5 here.

ERROR 10 – Actually, SPPI isn’t tough enough on AIT on this one. Mr. Gore says that 350ppm of CO2 is all that keeps a mile of ice off of the top of Cleveland, Detroit, and New York. The last time that happened was 2 million years ago during the Pleistocene era and Mr. Gore’s data doesn’t extend that far back so therefore he is making an unsubstantiated claim.

35 Inconvenient Truths: The errors in Al Gore’s movie – Part 1 of 5

Several days ago, I posted about RealClimate.org’s defense of the 9 ‘mistakes’ that a British court found in “An Inconvenient Truth” (AIT). My review was not well regarded by many at RealClimate as they defended their defense. My point at the time was that extremism is bad in all ways. Even if you think that the world is going to end due to human induced global warming, you must be able to see spin for what it is and confront it.

Conversely, if you think that all this global warming conversation is hooey, you still should not say that everything out of Mr. Gore’s mouth is biased and wrong. We need to evaluate each claim on its own and seriously discuss the viable issues.

The Scientific and Social Challenges of Global Warming

LITA – October 6, 2007

This is an interesting overview of global warming and its social challenges. I think that the author has oversimplified the conversation to some degree and may have even extrapolated some events that may not be applicable.  For instance, it is very difficult to say that polar bears will be extinct in 40 years since we do not have a good understanding of the numbers of polar bears today. There does not appear to be multiple and repeatable studies that show that current polar bear population is even declining.

The author also says that hurricanes will be more powerful in the future due to global warming and multiple scientists have come out against that hypothesis. Once again, it does not appear that the facts support that claim.

Global warming forecast predicts rise in 2014

Telegraph – August 9, 2007

I constantly tirade against the climate computer models that predict global warming. I really don’t see how they can be accurate based on my knowledge of them and the many “assumptions” that I know they make.

Here is an article on climate models that actually gives me hope that we are moving in the right direction!

According to the article (and to the best of my knowledge), this is the first computer model that is not designed to predict the climate in 50 or 100 years but rather predicts it in 10 years. I think this is important, since if you can get 10 years correct (something that is verifiable in 10 years), we can gain confidence in the 20, 30, 50 and 100 year predictions if they use the same modeling techniques.

They call this a consensus?

Financial Post – June 2, 2007

What an interesting article. The author begins by saying that his original intent when starting a series of articles was to write about the dissenters of global warming. His belief was that most scientists believed that global warming induced by human activity was occurring and he wanted to give a voice to those few dissenters that remained.  He was sure that they weren’t the kooks that everyone was calling him. He appears to have run into a problem – there are a lot of dissenters in the scientific community!  Of course, if you listen to statements by former Vice President Al Gore and the IPCC you wouldn’t arrive at that opinion.

Don’t Believe the Hype

Wall Street Journal – July 2, 2006

This is an editorial that condemns former Vice President Al Gore’s contentions that there is a true consensus on the issue of human caused global warming.  It cites a few of the more outrageous claims of Mr. Gore which I believe he has soften since last July. The editorial is written by Richard Lindzen, a Sloan Professor at MIT who is an outspoken critic of the climate change melodrama and has been cheered and maligned from the two camps.  Reading his thoughts is important for anyone that still has an open mind on this important issue.

Hurricane forecaster: Oceans, not CO2, cause global warming

The Mohave Daily News – April 30, 2007

Dr. Gray is one of the most quoted scientists out there proclaiming that some climatologists have made a mistake that we are approaching a tipping point for dramatic climate change. Some people then automatically label him as a nut or a kook but that is unfair. This man has spent his lifetime studying violent weather and for years was considered to be among the foremost scientists on that issue. Many still give him that honor.

Dr. Gray is saying that it is ocean currents that are changing the temperature in the atmosphere and that we are on the verge of a reversal that would leave the weather cooler. This flies in the face of many other theories and for that reason we need to listen to what this man has to say, understand it, and see if it makes sense.

Study Finds Hurricanes Frequent in Some Cooler Periods

New York Times – May 24, 2007

This article reinforces my constant call that we need to spend more time, effort, and money learning about our very complicated weather. It concerns me when I read stories that some scientists want the press to not cover the entire issue (Climate reporting too balanced say scientists) and this article only reinforces that feeling.

Scientists from the Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution studied the lagoon mud on a Caribbean island and found that ocean temperature was not the only factor that influenced the birth of hurricanes. Our understanding of this causality is still evolving and we need to have more effort and publicity about our advances in knowledge, not less. One of the scientists hypothesizes that the warming of the Pacific could stifle Atlantic based hurricanes.

Remarks of Senator Barack Obama, 4/3/06

ThinkProgress – April 3, 2006

Earlier, I had an article on the thoughts of Sen. John McCain on the subject of global warming and climate change.  Here are some of the thoughts of Sen. Barack Obama.  I don’t pick these two gentlemen because of their beliefs or that I will vote for one of them.  Rather, I think it is important to read about the feelings of people that are our leaders and who want a greater role.  I promise that I will write about more of these people in the coming days.

Sen. Obama appears to want greater efforts given to conservation and the discovery/use of alternative fuels. He also appears to think that we are in the midst of a global warming crisis caused by man.