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Results For: hurricanes

Scientists doubt climate change

The Washington Times – December 21, 2007

This story has been floating around the media for some time and I suppose it is time that I discuss it as well. It wouldn’t be such a big deal except that Mr. Al Gore, former Vice President of the United States and Nobel prize winner, declared the debate over and that there was a consensus among scientists. Of course, the first thing that happens with that kind of grandiose statement is the nay-sayers raise their hands REAL HIGH!

That is part of what makes this discussion so interesting (and so frustrating). Seemingly intelligent people with such strong and diverse opinions that are arguing so strenuously. As with most bi-polar discussions, the truth likely lies somewhere in the middle.

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Study: Climate change could cost economy billions

Jacksonville Business Journal – December 14, 2007

There has been a great deal of analysis on the costs of curbing emissions to the US economy but very little in analysis on a local scale of the costs of the change in climate if global warming continues. This study allows for causation to be a mixture of natural and human and doesn’t allocate responsibility to either side.

There are a few things in the article that don’t appear to be substantiated.

  • pointing to Ponte Vedra Beach as an indicator of the bad things to come for Florida seems like a red herring. Does the study really think any changes at that particular beach are due to the changes in the climate to date? Ocean levels have not increased that dramatically compared to 2 or 3 decades ago
  • there is quite a bit of counter-proof regarding increased hurricane activity. I have written on this several times.

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Climate skepticism: The top 10

BBC News – November 12, 2007

If you are a global warming skeptic (or if you deal with one regularly), you need to read this article on BBC. It covers a claimed top ten reasons that skeptics likely cite regarding global warming and then gives a short reason why the excuse is not valid.

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Hurricane activity lowest in 3 decades

The season for hurricanes is not over yet but we only have a few more weeks of "prime time" left. So far, 2007 is shaping up to be the lowest number of hurricanes since 1977.

While this may seem significant, it isn’t. The data for tracking this stuff is unbelievably short and we simply do not have enough data to say anything of significance about the fact that it was so low. On other sites, you may see discussion that the trend is still going up but even that isn’t significant because we have so little data. If we were doing a good count since 1900, then I would pay attention to the trend but that isn’t the case.  We only have about 40 years of data it is relatively meaningless.

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35 Inconvenient Truths: The errors in Al Gore’s movie – Part 2 of 5

This is the second of a 5 part series reviewing the comments of the Science and Public Policy Institute (SPPI) in regards to “An Inconvenient Truth” (AIT).

You can read Part 1 of 5 here.
You can read Part 3 of 5 here.
You can read Part 4 of 5 here.
You can read Part 5 of 5 here.

ERROR 10 – Actually, SPPI isn’t tough enough on AIT on this one. Mr. Gore says that 350ppm of CO2 is all that keeps a mile of ice off of the top of Cleveland, Detroit, and New York. The last time that happened was 2 million years ago during the Pleistocene era and Mr. Gore’s data doesn’t extend that far back so therefore he is making an unsubstantiated claim.

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35 Inconvenient Truths: The errors in Al Gore’s movie – Part 1 of 5

Several days ago, I posted about RealClimate.org’s defense of the 9 ‘mistakes’ that a British court found in “An Inconvenient Truth” (AIT). My review was not well regarded by many at RealClimate as they defended their defense. My point at the time was that extremism is bad in all ways. Even if you think that the world is going to end due to human induced global warming, you must be able to see spin for what it is and confront it.

Conversely, if you think that all this global warming conversation is hooey, you still should not say that everything out of Mr. Gore’s mouth is biased and wrong. We need to evaluate each claim on its own and seriously discuss the viable issues.

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The Scientific and Social Challenges of Global Warming

LITA – October 6, 2007

This is an interesting overview of global warming and its social challenges. I think that the author has oversimplified the conversation to some degree and may have even extrapolated some events that may not be applicable.  For instance, it is very difficult to say that polar bears will be extinct in 40 years since we do not have a good understanding of the numbers of polar bears today. There does not appear to be multiple and repeatable studies that show that current polar bear population is even declining.

The author also says that hurricanes will be more powerful in the future due to global warming and multiple scientists have come out against that hypothesis. Once again, it does not appear that the facts support that claim.

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Global warming forecast predicts rise in 2014

Telegraph – August 9, 2007

I constantly tirade against the climate computer models that predict global warming. I really don’t see how they can be accurate based on my knowledge of them and the many “assumptions” that I know they make.

Here is an article on climate models that actually gives me hope that we are moving in the right direction!

According to the article (and to the best of my knowledge), this is the first computer model that is not designed to predict the climate in 50 or 100 years but rather predicts it in 10 years. I think this is important, since if you can get 10 years correct (something that is verifiable in 10 years), we can gain confidence in the 20, 30, 50 and 100 year predictions if they use the same modeling techniques.

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They call this a consensus?

Financial Post – June 2, 2007

What an interesting article. The author begins by saying that his original intent when starting a series of articles was to write about the dissenters of global warming. His belief was that most scientists believed that global warming induced by human activity was occurring and he wanted to give a voice to those few dissenters that remained.  He was sure that they weren’t the kooks that everyone was calling him. He appears to have run into a problem – there are a lot of dissenters in the scientific community!  Of course, if you listen to statements by former Vice President Al Gore and the IPCC you wouldn’t arrive at that opinion.

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Don’t Believe the Hype

Wall Street Journal – July 2, 2006

This is an editorial that condemns former Vice President Al Gore’s contentions that there is a true consensus on the issue of human caused global warming.  It cites a few of the more outrageous claims of Mr. Gore which I believe he has soften since last July. The editorial is written by Richard Lindzen, a Sloan Professor at MIT who is an outspoken critic of the climate change melodrama and has been cheered and maligned from the two camps.  Reading his thoughts is important for anyone that still has an open mind on this important issue.

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