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Global warming may ‘stop’, scientists predict

Telegraph – April 30, 2008

I am starting to get suspicious whenever I see the phrase “Scientists Predict” in a title or opening paragraph. It almost seems that a scientist’s prediction is a lot like an appendix: everyone has one.

Leibniz Institute of Marine Sciences has now predicted that for the next 8-10 years we won’t be seeing any global warming as the IPCC and Mr. Al Gore have predicted (there’s that word again). I am looking forward to other scientists standing up in the next few days to “predict” that this “prediction” is not accurate and that their “prediction” is more accurate.  Anyone have a spare crystal ball?

The Mystery of Global Warming’s Missing Heat

March 19, 2008 – NPR.com

I love a good mystery. I am a big fan of mystery and drama shows on TV and movies and voraciously read all of James Patterson’s books and similar mystery stories.  I do not think that I would spend billions (trillions?) of dollars on it though and that is what we are embarking on with the global warming mystery.

If you are reading this site then you are probably interested, concerned, or worried about predictions of the future regarding global warming. The reasonable method of predicting the future is to understand the present and the past and make some inference on how current trends will be affected into the future. This prediction for global warming is done with computers and I have repeatedly ranted on this site that our capability of developing these models is sub-standard.

Reader questions – Part 2 of 4

I recently received an email from Brittany C asking four questions.  Brittany is allowing me to publish her questions and my answers.  These answers are a combination of scientific fact with conjecture and opinion from me. Earlier, I answered the first of her 4 questions and today I will answer the second.

Question 2: If CO2 were linked to temperature increase wouldn’t that mean that temperatures would have steadily increased from the start of the Industrial Revolution to today?  If that’s the case, why was there a cooling period from the 1940s to the 1970s?

New Study: Global Warming Not The Only Factor In Arctic Ice Shelf Collapse

AHN – February 7, 2008

More studies and more contradictory conclusions! I feel like a broken record sometimes in this discussion of global warming and causality. As soon as one scientist puts out a hypothesis, another puts out a contradictory or modifying hypothesis. Perhaps the key thing to understand is that these aren’t facts but conclusions that have been reached by individuals.

A hypothesis (according to Dictionary.com) is:

a proposition, or set of propositions, set forth as an explanation for the occurrence of some specified group of phenomena, either asserted merely as a provisional conjecture to guide investigation (working hypothesis) or accepted as highly probable in the light of established facts.

Scientists doubt climate change

The Washington Times – December 21, 2007

This story has been floating around the media for some time and I suppose it is time that I discuss it as well. It wouldn’t be such a big deal except that Mr. Al Gore, former Vice President of the United States and Nobel prize winner, declared the debate over and that there was a consensus among scientists. Of course, the first thing that happens with that kind of grandiose statement is the nay-sayers raise their hands REAL HIGH!

That is part of what makes this discussion so interesting (and so frustrating). Seemingly intelligent people with such strong and diverse opinions that are arguing so strenuously. As with most bi-polar discussions, the truth likely lies somewhere in the middle.

Will Global Warming Trigger Next Ice Age?

This article discusses a series of events that have already started that could cause the next ice age. This series of events is the same as the one that theories say caused the last ice age. It is an interesting series of events that seems just as likely as the world getting dramatically warmer. In fact, since many of the mechanisms are already in place, this likelihood seems even stronger.

I usually put the title of the article that I am referencing in the title of my post but in this case the title resides in a technical journal and it is so boring that I elected to write my own.  For the purposes of this discussion, I am referencing “Climate Control Requires a Dam at the Strait of Gibraltar” which was published by the American Geophysical Union on July 8, 1997 by the now Professor Emeritus Dr. R. G. Johnson.

35 Inconvenient Truths: The errors in Al Gore’s movie – Part 5 of 5

This is the fifth and final installment of a 5 part series reviewing the comments of the Science and Public Policy Institute (SPPI) in regards to “An Inconvenient Truth” (AIT). I have already covered the 35 points in previous points so this one is strictly my thoughts and comments.

You can read Part 1 of 5 here.
You can read Part 2 of 5 here.
You can read Part 3 of 5 here.
You can read Part 4 of 5 here.

So how did SPPI fair? Personally, I wish they would have been a bit more conservative in their claims. Several times they dinged Mr. Gore twice (or three times) for the same basic error. I tend to write this off as being over-zealous and perhaps trying to get a bigger number for the headline.

35 Inconvenient Truths: The errors in Al Gore’s movie – Part 4 of 5

This is the fourth of a 5 part series reviewing the comments of the Science and Public Policy Institute (SPPI) in regards to “An Inconvenient Truth” (AIT).

You can read Part 1 of 5 here.
You can read Part 2 of 5 here.
You can read Part 3 of 5 here.
You can read Part 5 of 5 here.

ERROR 27 – Shame on Mr. Gore for citing this example! He is trying to link malaria with global warming. There were many malaria outbreaks in Nairobi prior to human induced global warming could be a factor. Mr. Gore’s statements here are pure sham and is probably the biggest reason that I dislike this film as a documentary.

35 Inconvenient Truths: The errors in Al Gore’s movie – Part 3 of 5

This is the third of a 5 part series reviewing the comments of the Science and Public Policy Institute (SPPI) in regards to “An Inconvenient Truth” (AIT).

You can read Part 1 of 5 here.
You can read Part 2 of 5 here.
You can read Part 4 of 5 here.
You can read Part 5 of 5 here.

ERROR 18 – I can’t find evidence for SPPI’s statement that the Arctic has increased decreased in temperature 1 deg C in the last 60 years. SPPI falls victim here to the common Gore affliction of pointing out individual instances of information (ice bound ships) and assuming that this is conclusive data. I have called AIT out on this and I need to do the same with SPPI. Unless they can point to a reference for the temperature increase, I need to call this one spin.

35 Inconvenient Truths: The errors in Al Gore’s movie – Part 2 of 5

This is the second of a 5 part series reviewing the comments of the Science and Public Policy Institute (SPPI) in regards to “An Inconvenient Truth” (AIT).

You can read Part 1 of 5 here.
You can read Part 3 of 5 here.
You can read Part 4 of 5 here.
You can read Part 5 of 5 here.

ERROR 10 – Actually, SPPI isn’t tough enough on AIT on this one. Mr. Gore says that 350ppm of CO2 is all that keeps a mile of ice off of the top of Cleveland, Detroit, and New York. The last time that happened was 2 million years ago during the Pleistocene era and Mr. Gore’s data doesn’t extend that far back so therefore he is making an unsubstantiated claim.