Making predictions almost guarantees failure


“Experts” like to make predictions.  They like to say that by a certain date a certain thing will happen. This is really common by people predicting the market penetration of one technology over another.  Have you noticed that these types of predictions are almost always wrong.  Why do “experts” make silly predictions when the success rate of such predictions is almost always poor?  It almost seems like these experts believe that everyone else cannot predict the future but they can!

Predicting the weather is really tough.  While you may rely on the prediction of weather for the following day, have you ever heard of a baseball game being cancelled on that prediction?  Would you cancel your family plans for next weekend based on the 7 day outlook?  Of course not. 

So why would an expert predict an event a decade away? I have no idea. The chances of being correct seem impossibly small and it will simply ruin your credibility. So why did the UNES (a body within the UN) predict that 50M people would be made by refugees by global warming?  I have no idea.

I like James Taranto’s treatment of the information:

Ministry of Truth
On Thursday we noted that the website of the U.N. Environment Programme featured a prediction "that climate change would create 50 million climate refugees by 2010" and featuring a map to show where they’d come from. It’s 2011 now, the refugees never materialized, and, as blogger Aaron Worthing notes, the map had disappeared by Friday morning–though Worthing reproduces it and Anthony Watts of the Daily Caller has a high-res copy.

Watts also links to a February 2011 Agence France-Presse story titled "50 Million ‘Environmental Refugees’ by 2020, Experts Say." The experts attribute the warning to the U.N. It’s a good bet that in 2021 the 50 million climate refugees will be by 2030.

You may recognize Anthony Watts name from the most visited blog on climate science in the world,

Of course, Taranto is making another prediction in his last sentence but he is obviously doing it with some level of humor. Mr. Taranto is not much of a humorist – he should just read my favorite sites for humor (College Humor and Politically Incorrect Humor) instead.

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1 thought on “Making predictions almost guarantees failure”

  1. Well, at least Gore is right regarding climate change, right? Or is he wrong? He says it was man-made, not simply earth’s ordinary cycle over thousands of years. Ya think?

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