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Telegraph – April 30, 2008
I am starting to get suspicious whenever I see the phrase “Scientists Predict” in a title or opening paragraph. It almost seems that a scientist’s prediction is a lot like an appendix: everyone has one.
Leibniz Institute of Marine Sciences has now predicted that for the next 8-10 years we won’t be seeing any global warming as the IPCC and Mr. Al Gore have predicted (there’s that word again). I am looking forward to other scientists standing up in the next few days to “predict” that this “prediction” is not accurate and that their “prediction” is more accurate. Anyone have a spare crystal ball?
Of course, this “prediction” comes from a new computer model of how oceans behave. This is interesting, does this mean that the existing computer models that predict the end of life as we know it are old and obsolete and don’t include the ocean behavior? Maybe we should invest more technology and effort in creating more comprehensive computer models (if you read this site often, you have read that before).
Researchers studying long-term changes in sea temperatures said they now expect a “lull” for up to a decade while natural variations in climate cancel out the increases caused by man-made greenhouse gas emissions.
This would mean that the 0.3°C global average temperature rise which has been predicted for the next decade by the UN’s Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change may not happen, according to the paper published in the scientific journal Nature.
He stressed that the results were just the initial findings from a new computer model of how the oceans behave over decades and it would be wholly misleading to infer that global warming, in the sense of the enhanced greenhouse effect from increased carbon emissions, had gone away.
The IPCC currently does not include in its models actual records of such events as the strength of the Gulf Stream and the El Nino cyclical warming event in the Pacific, which are known to have been behind the warmest year ever recorded in 1998. [Editors note: this is the same warming peak that proponents of global warming took as being a sign that the end was near]
Today’s paper in Nature tries to simulate the variability of these events and longer cycles, such as the giant ocean “conveyor belt” known as the meridional overturning circulation (MOC), which brings warm water north into the North East Atlantic.
Click here to read the Nature article about this study.
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