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Hurricane activity lowest in 3 decades

The season for hurricanes is not over yet but we only have a few more weeks of "prime time" left. So far, 2007 is shaping up to be the lowest number of hurricanes since 1977.

While this may seem significant, it isn’t. The data for tracking this stuff is unbelievably short and we simply do not have enough data to say anything of significance about the fact that it was so low. On other sites, you may see discussion that the trend is still going up but even that isn’t significant because we have so little data. If we were doing a good count since 1900, then I would pay attention to the trend but that isn’t the case.  We only have about 40 years of data it is relatively meaningless.

So some sites will talk that this proves that the world is not ending – it doesn’t prove that.  Other sites will say that Mr. Gore is all wet – rather this only shows that he should never have talked about hurricanes to begin with. Other sites will try to spin this in just talk about the trend – the trend is meaningless with so little data.  I am a little disappointed at Climate Audit in that their write up almost seems like they are disappointed that the number of hurricanes was so low.  I am sure that it was just they way it was written but it didn’t feel right.

This data point is probably just noise. Don’t let any other inference cloud your thinking.

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One Response to “Hurricane activity lowest in 3 decades”

  1. What did you read at Climateaudit that implies anything remotely close to, “seems like they are disappointed that the number of hurricanes was so low?”

    There are people who did take pre-season guesses as to how many named storms we’d see in the North Atlantic Basin. But nobody there is disappointed at the low number of storms. In fact, if you had noticed any of the other many threads involving hurricanes at the site, you’d see a lot of discussion about a possible push to name storms that 10-30+ yrs ago wouldn’t have been named.