Global warming forecast predicts rise in 2014


Telegraph – August 9, 2007

I constantly tirade against the climate computer models that predict global warming. I really don’t see how they can be accurate based on my knowledge of them and the many “assumptions” that I know they make.

Here is an article on climate models that actually gives me hope that we are moving in the right direction!

According to the article (and to the best of my knowledge), this is the first computer model that is not designed to predict the climate in 50 or 100 years but rather predicts it in 10 years. I think this is important, since if you can get 10 years correct (something that is verifiable in 10 years), we can gain confidence in the 20, 30, 50 and 100 year predictions if they use the same modeling techniques.

It is concerning to me that global warming in this model is not a straight line but appears to have another hockey stick. I am skeptical of hockey sticks graphs. Why do modelers think that things are going to change abruptly and continue on a new direction. Inertia tends to work in a straight line and Earth’s temperature should act with more inertia.

Here is the climate forecast for the next decade; although global warming will be held in check for a few years, it will come roaring back to send the mercury rising before 2014.

The new model developed at the Met’s Hadley Centre in Exeter, and described in the journal Science, predicts that warming will slow during the next few years but then speed up again, and that at least half of the years after 2009 will be warmer than 1998, the warmest year on record. [Editor’s note – this article source was written before NASA republished the numbers to point out that 1998 was not the warmest year – it was the second warmest – read my comments on this here].

The new model developed by a team led by Dr Doug Smith can make these shorter term predictions significantly more accurately because it incorporates information about the actual state of the ocean and the atmosphere today, so it is possible to predict both the effects of natural factors, such as changes in ocean circulation, and those caused by burning fossil fuels.

The resulting improved climate forecasting should help decision-makers and businesses focus on where and when the most severe climate change will be happening and might provide new insights into pressing issues, such as the impact of warming on hurricanes.

As a bonus, the model could help show when the looming threat of global warming will be masked temporarily by the natural variability of the climate.

You can read the rest of this great article here.

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