LifeStyleExtra – August 8, 2007
This article cites a study done that shows that variations of solar activity cannot account for the current changes in temperature and puts the blame on man-made sources of global warming.
The study was done by Ka-Kit Tung and other colleagues at the University of Washington where Mr. Tung is a mathematician professor. The study was published in Geophysical Research Letters.
I am concerned that this is the “first time a statistically significant global temperature signal has been found for the 11-year [solar] cycle.” I have been saying for some time now that we needed to understand these various attributes and we need to spend more time incorporating them into our models. I look forward to more work that is developed off of Mr. Tung’s effort.
I also think that Mr. Tung is doing the right thing when he says that, based on his analysis, the temperature in the next few years will change in a certain way. This allows a very short-term real-world feedback to see if his analysis and conclusions are correct. I only hope that in five years, if his prediction is not correct, that he stands up and says that there may have been an error. I wrote about the lack of “responsibility” in the scientific community several months ago.
Global warming is man-made with the Sun’s activity playing only a small part in the crisis, claims a new study.
In the US study of solar radiation and surface temperatures over the past 50 years researchers found global average temperatures oscillated by almost 0.2 degrees centigrade between high and low points in an 11-year solar cycle.
…researchers say the finding …reinforces that mainstream climate models are right about the likely extent of human-generated warming.
Prof Tung says the sun is currently at a low point in the 11-year cycle. Unless other influences like volcanic eruptions or El Ninos intervene we can expect strong warming of the atmosphere in the next five years as an upturn in the cycle reinforces human-generated warming.
What will excite climate scientists most is Prof Tung and his team are the first to measure directly how a given change in the amount of heat energy in the atmosphere translates into a change in temperature.
Climate modeller Peter Cox from the University of Exeter says Prof Tung has shown, without recourse to climate models, that a doubling of carbon dioxide would cause at least 2 degrees centigrade of warming “which is considered by many to be the threshold of dangerous climate change.”
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