Dedicated to the balanced discussion of global warming
Climate Science – February 8, 2007
This a very powerful article/blog entry and should be a must read for anyone that still has an open mind to global warming. It was written by Dr. Reid Bryson.
Dr.Bryson’s claim is that we are not in a human made global warming trend. If the globe is getting warmer, he argues it is because this is part of regular cycle of warming and that we are emerging from a cold trend in the climate. He references some historical examples to make his point and the statements are quite thought provoking. He theorizes that this change in climate is due to Milankovitch variations in solar radiation. If his observations are correct then we are emerging from an ice age and have just reached a common minimum for temperature. The model he shows suggests that we will have another .3 deg C increase in the next hundred years or so before we arrive at the historical peaks of the last 2500 years.
Typically, my quotes are broken by paragraphs and they are not contiguous in the source text. In this case, the first two paragraphs are taken as a contiguous quote.
carbon dioxide, Europe, glaciers, Greenland, ice age, Milankovitch, mountain, Reid, science, snow, solar, temperature
When the Vikings settled part of Greenland circa 900 CE, they established a settlement that lasted longer than the United States has been around. There was a considerable amount of traffic between Greenland and Europe, by the standards of the time, so some skippers were making their first trip. The directions were, at first, to sail two and a half days west from Iceland to the shore of Greenland where there stood the landmark Blasark (black shirt) Mountain. Then sail down the coast to Eriksfjord, a beautiful broad straight passage across southern Greenland. Reaching the west coast they should turn right up the coast to the navigation marker on Herjolf’s Ness. (About “Bluie West 3”in WW II.) Turning in to Tunugdliarfik Fjord Erik’s homestead Brattahlid was only 75 miles at the end of the fjord (across from Bluie West 1, for you old timers).
After 1200 CE the directions changed. Sail one and a half days west from Iceland to the edge of the ice pack. If it is clear you might see the mountain Hvitsark to the west (snow covered now?), then go all the way down around hazardous Cap Farvel and up the other coast to Herjolf’s Ness. Eriksfjord was no longer open, nor is it now. As of a decade or so ago there were two valley glaciers blocking it from the sides. Yes, I saw them. If Greenland ice diminishes some, will we be getting back to conditions like it used to be?
The drivers of this model are Milankovitch calculations (average for the entire Hemisphere) and the observed volcanic record described above. Carbon dioxide is treated as a very minor dependent variable. It is unlikely that a general circulation model which assumes a major role of carbon dioxide can duplicate this known climatic sequence.